Low-correlation Alpha candidate reproduction
Factor Agent
Gate: PAAT reproductionTotal = gross realized + unrealized - fees + rebates. Spread capture and markouts are overlapping diagnostics, not extra accounting legs.
| Fill / order | Side / liquidity | Price / qty | Fee / rebate | Ack ms | State / score | Inventory before / after | Fill time | 100ms | 1s | 5s | 30s | 1min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USDT-fill-884BTC-USDT-order-880 | BUY / MAKER | 100,009.4 / 0.005 | 0.05 / 0 | 12 | TREND_POSITION / 0.9244 | 0.055 / 0.06 | 04:01:28.412 UTC | 5.5489 | 6.5276 | PENDING | PENDING | PENDING |
| BTC-USDT-fill-882BTC-USDT-order-880 | BUY / MAKER | 100,009.4 / 0.005 | 0.05 / 0 | 12 | TREND_POSITION / 0.9274 | 0.05 / 0.055 | 04:01:28.212 UTC | 5.3122 | 6.3036 | PENDING | PENDING | PENDING |
| BTC-USDT-fill-864BTC-USDT-order-860 | BUY / MAKER | 100,008.9 / 0.005 | 0.05 / 0 | 12 | TREND_POSITION / 0.94 | 0.045 / 0.05 | 04:01:26.412 UTC | 3.805 | 4.8111 | PENDING | PENDING | PENDING |
| BTC-USDT-fill-862BTC-USDT-order-860 | BUY / MAKER | 100,008.9 / 0.005 | 0.05 / 0 | 12 | TREND_POSITION / 0.9399 | 0.04 / 0.045 | 04:01:26.212 UTC | 3.5724 | 4.5929 | PENDING | PENDING | PENDING |
| BTC-USDT-fill-844BTC-USDT-order-840 | BUY / MAKER | 100,005.3 / 0.005 | 0.05 / 0 | 12 | TREND_POSITION / 0.9246 | 0.035 / 0.04 | 04:01:24.412 UTC | 5.1505 | 6.1554 | 10.6276 | PENDING | PENDING |
| BTC-USDT-fill-842BTC-USDT-order-840 | BUY / MAKER | 100,005.3 / 0.005 | 0.05 / 0 | 12 | TREND_POSITION / 0.9214 | 0.03 / 0.035 | 04:01:24.212 UTC | 4.9344 | 5.9458 | 10.4036 | PENDING | PENDING |
| BTC-USDT-fill-824BTC-USDT-order-820 | BUY / MAKER | 100,004.2 / 0.005 | 0.05 / 0 | 12 | TREND_POSITION / 0.8787 | 0.025 / 0.03 | 04:01:22.412 UTC | 4.0643 | 5.0368 | 9.5111 | PENDING | PENDING |
| BTC-USDT-fill-822BTC-USDT-order-820 | BUY / MAKER | 100,004.2 / 0.005 | 0.05 / 0 | 12 | TREND_POSITION / 0.8725 | 0.02 / 0.025 | 04:01:22.212 UTC | 3.8675 | 4.8326 | 9.2929 | PENDING | PENDING |
| BTC-USDT-fill-804BTC-USDT-order-800 | BUY / MAKER | 100,002.7 / 0.005 | 0.05 / 0 | 12 | TREND_POSITION / 0.8039 | 0.015 / 0.02 | 04:01:20.412 UTC | 3.5204 | 4.4267 | 8.7554 | PENDING | PENDING |
| BTC-USDT-fill-802BTC-USDT-order-800 | BUY / MAKER | 100,002.7 / 0.005 | 0.05 / 0 | 12 | TREND_POSITION / 0.7949 | 0.01 / 0.015 | 04:01:20.212 UTC | 3.3393 | 4.2256 | 8.5458 | PENDING | PENDING |
84 matured 5s markouts; mean 11.4843 USDT/unit
Positive sample markout does not establish profitability; test sensitivity to fees, latency and queue assumptions.
Freeze seed/time splits; compare mid-only baseline versus source-owned fair-price model with equal costs and limits.
Out-of-sample replay -> paper/shadow -> independent Human approval
{
"id": "BTC-USDT-research-1789185690012",
"source": "Frozen synthetic L1 / fills / uncalibrated illustrative control",
"asOf": 1789185690012,
"observation": "84 matured 5s markouts; mean 11.4843 USDT/unit",
"hypothesis": "Positive sample markout does not establish profitability; test sensitivity to fees, latency and queue assumptions.",
"experiment": "Freeze seed/time splits; compare mid-only baseline versus source-owned fair-price model with equal costs and limits.",
"owner": "PMMT / PTFT / SMT",
"status": "PROPOSED_NOT_APPROVED",
"nextGate": "Out-of-sample replay -> paper/shadow -> independent Human approval",
"evidenceRefs": [
"BTC-USDT-fill-22",
"BTC-USDT-fill-24",
"BTC-USDT-fill-42",
"BTC-USDT-fill-44",
"BTC-USDT-fill-62",
"BTC-USDT-fill-64",
"BTC-USDT-fill-82",
"BTC-USDT-fill-84",
"BTC-USDT-fill-102",
"BTC-USDT-fill-104",
"BTC-USDT-fill-122",
"BTC-USDT-fill-124",
"BTC-USDT-fill-142",
"BTC-USDT-fill-144",
"BTC-USDT-fill-162",
"BTC-USDT-fill-164",
"BTC-USDT-fill-182",
"BTC-USDT-fill-184",
"BTC-USDT-fill-202",
"BTC-USDT-fill-204",
"BTC-USDT-fill-222",
"BTC-USDT-fill-224",
"BTC-USDT-fill-242",
"BTC-USDT-fill-244",
"BTC-USDT-fill-262",
"BTC-USDT-fill-264",
"BTC-USDT-fill-282",
"BTC-USDT-fill-284",
"BTC-USDT-fill-302",
"BTC-USDT-fill-304",
"BTC-USDT-fill-322",
"BTC-USDT-fill-324",
"BTC-USDT-fill-342",
"BTC-USDT-fill-344",
"BTC-USDT-fill-362",
"BTC-USDT-fill-364",
"BTC-USDT-fill-382",
"BTC-USDT-fill-384",
"BTC-USDT-fill-402",
"BTC-USDT-fill-404",
"BTC-USDT-fill-422",
"BTC-USDT-fill-424",
"BTC-USDT-fill-442",
"BTC-USDT-fill-444",
"BTC-USDT-fill-462",
"BTC-USDT-fill-464",
"BTC-USDT-fill-482",
"BTC-USDT-fill-484",
"BTC-USDT-fill-502",
"BTC-USDT-fill-504",
"BTC-USDT-fill-522",
"BTC-USDT-fill-524",
"BTC-USDT-fill-542",
"BTC-USDT-fill-544",
"BTC-USDT-fill-562",
"BTC-USDT-fill-564",
"BTC-USDT-fill-582",
"BTC-USDT-fill-584",
"BTC-USDT-fill-602",
"BTC-USDT-fill-604",
"BTC-USDT-fill-622",
"BTC-USDT-fill-624",
"BTC-USDT-fill-642",
"BTC-USDT-fill-644",
"BTC-USDT-fill-662",
"BTC-USDT-fill-664",
"BTC-USDT-fill-682",
"BTC-USDT-fill-684",
"BTC-USDT-fill-702",
"BTC-USDT-fill-704",
"BTC-USDT-fill-722",
"BTC-USDT-fill-724",
"BTC-USDT-fill-742",
"BTC-USDT-fill-744",
"BTC-USDT-fill-762",
"BTC-USDT-fill-764",
"BTC-USDT-fill-782",
"BTC-USDT-fill-784",
"BTC-USDT-fill-802",
"BTC-USDT-fill-804",
"BTC-USDT-fill-822",
"BTC-USDT-fill-824",
"BTC-USDT-fill-842",
"BTC-USDT-fill-844"
],
"liveActionAllowed": false
}RESEARCH LOOP
Trading observations become bounded research candidates; source teams retain ownership and validation duties.
Factor Agent
Gate: PAAT reproductionTrend Agent
Gate: Walk-forwardMarket Making Agent
Gate: Replay benchmarkStrategy Manager Agent
Gate: Simulation only